In the 2004-05 season, José Mourinho’s Chelsea conceded just 15 goals across 38 games en route to the Premier League title. Anchored by John Terry, Ricardo Carvalho and Petr Čech, Chelsea posted 25 clean sheets, the record in a single Premier League season, and allowed only six goals away from home.
Coasting to the league title with 95 points, Chelsea’s defense was suffocating, leading many pundits to believe those defensive numbers would never again be touched.
Fast forward two decades, and it is now Arsenal who sit atop the Premier League, having conceded just three goals in 10 Premier League games. On the back of seven consecutive clean sheets, they didn’t allow a single goal in October — not just in the Premier League, but across all competitions.
If we run some calculations — now, I know math just as much as the next person — Arsenal are currently projected to concede just 11.4 goals this season, which would shatter Chelsea’s historic record. Ask David Raya how many shots he faced in the Premier League this past month. The answer is one. He might as well have worked from home.
So, the grand question: Can they actually do it? Well, the jury’s still out, but I believe they’ve got a fighting chance. The golden variable of comparison would be post-shot expected goals (PSxG) — a metric measuring shot quality after it leaves the boot. But since PSxG data doesn’t extend back to 2004-05, we’re better equipped to analyze the small sample of goals Arsenal have actually conceded.
Arsenal’s first real blemish came on Aug. 31 in a 1-0 loss to pre-season title favorites Liverpool — their first goal conceded and the first defeat of their campaign. However, even this might be considered an outlier, as Liverpool did not score from open play. Late in the game, Arsenal conceded a free kick, from which Dominik Szoboszlai produced a 32-yard masterpiece to best Raya, one of the most in-form goalkeepers in the world.
You couldn’t script it much better. As former Manchester City and Celtic goalkeeper Joe Hart puts it: “David Raya is in a brilliant position. He’s in a brilliant position to get those steps in and say, ‘You have to be perfect to beat me.’ And do you know what? That free-kick wasn’t far off it.”
Setting the Liverpool goal aside, Arsenal have conceded just two other goals from open play, the second of which came at the hands of Scandinavian striker Erling Haaland in a 1-1 draw with Manchester City on Sept. 21.
Eight minutes into the game, Declan Rice and Mikel Merino lost the ball in midfield and City pounced, setting Haaland free on the counter. The best striker in the world wasn’t going to miss from there.
At first glance, it’s a fairly common goal to concede. However, if we look closer, we can see Arsenal shot themselves in the foot with a needless defensive lapse. Immediately, we see Riccardo Calafiori, the left-back occupying the space Haaland attacks, was already behind the ball on the left wing, while Leandro Trossard overlapped inside to fill the vacated space.
Now, in itself, this isn’t a problem. Calafiori — whom I will touch on later — doesn’t occupy the role of a traditional fullback and isn’t at fault for the goal here. The issue comes when the ball is lost, as four Arsenal players converge into a five-yard space. Trossard, Rice, Merino and Martín Zubimendi are all bunched together, taken out of the play completely as City advances the ball. Center back Gabriel Magalhães was also stranded six yards behind Haaland, too deep to engage but too close to recover.
Against Manchester City, that isn’t acceptable. It’s a concerning lapse of judgment, a small detail worth remembering as the season progresses.
Arsenal’s third and final goal conceded came one week later, on Sept. 28. In a 2-1 win against Newcastle. Striker Nick Woltemade guided a header over Gabriel and past Raya into the bottom corner to open the scoring. It was a bit of a scrappy goal — Woltemade pushes Gabriel, who goes down relatively easily — and some believe it shouldn’t have counted at all. I’m not here to argue the foul; it was a fiery match and every team concedes one like that eventually.
So, all things considered, will they beat Chelsea’s record? Honestly, I couldn’t say. They’ve got all the tools to do it. William Saliba and Gabriel are perfect complements — easily the best center-back pairing in the world. Right-back Jurrien Timber just keeps getting better after his return from injury, almost unbeatable in one-on-one defending scenarios. Raya is a world-class keeper, always reliable when called upon. Calafiori, too, has burst onto the scene this season as an explosive left-back who seems to play wherever he wants.
Aside from star power in their lineup, their depth is immense — Myles Lewis-Skelly, Ben White, Piero Hincapié, Cristhian Mosquera and Kepa Arrizabalaga are all backups who probably start in most other Premier League defenses.
Even still, I’m not convinced Arsenal will win the league when all is said and done, it feels like a gargantuan task to maintain this form over an entire season when injuries happen, fixtures pile up and pressure starts to mount. Additionally, Arsenal have the mental task of playing with this knowledge in the back of their minds every single game. It seems hard to fathom that they will do it, because to beat Chelsea’s record, you have to be perfect. And I’m not sure they will be.
At the same time, though, why not dream? The last time Arsenal won the Premier League was in 2003-04, when Thierry Henry and Co. waltzed to the league title with 90 points. Dubbed “The Invincibles,” Arsenal posted an unbeaten record of 26 wins and 12 draws, becoming the only Premier League team to finish the season without losing a game. Oh, and also, they won the league at White Heart Lane, home to their rivals, Tottenham Hotspur.
A lot has changed in the past 20 years. Arsenal have lost, struggled and consistently failed to return to that same pinnacle. But they’ve drawn closer and closer, finishing second for the past three seasons. This year, I can confidently say this is the best Arsenal side since that ’03-04 season.
So, let’s go win the league. And why not break some records while we are at it?
Otto Fritton PZ ’27 is an avid Arsenal fan who dearly misses Arsène Wenger. He likes to think that if he speaks good enough French, he can turn into Wenger himself. Spoiler: he can’t. He is also a self-proclaimed “mid-baller.”
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