Will Win, Should Win, And Snubbed: Our Oscar Predictions

Graphic by Sarah Wong

Hollywood has had a year of reckoning, complicity, and unified strength. Articles about sexual harassment and widespread systematic cover-ups overshadowed stories about box office grosses, the next Disney remake, or even those about a continued lack of diversity in stories, casts, production teams, and, increasingly, audiences.

The Oscars are a time to re-gather and consider the last and next year in film. The films most recognized by the Academy are ones that bring something new to the table, but not everything.

“Get Out” best fits this bill as a horror film laced with the racial politics of suburbia and Hollywood. Indie films get their fair share (“Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri” and “Lady Bird”), World War II historicals always have to make an appearance (‘’Darkest Hour” and ‘’Dunkirk”), and sci-fi romance weirdness got a special place this year as the most-nominated film (“The Shape of Water”).

Beyond the top Oscar contenders, the “Star Wars” series continued (“Star Wars: The Last Jedi”) and “It” became one of the most referenced films of the year.

With the year’s top film awards come our predictions for the winners. We base these predictions on our own experiences viewing many of the films, the results of previous awards shows, and other expert predictions.

Best Picture

The nominees: “Call Me by Your Name,” “Darkest Hour,” “Dunkirk,” ‘’Get Out,” “Lady Bird,” “Phantom Thread,” ‘“The Post,” “The Shape of Water,” “Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri”

Will win:

    Victoria’s pick: “The Shape of Water”

    Sam’s pick: “Lady Bird”

Should win:

Victoria’s pick: “Call Me by Your Name”

Sam’s pick: “Call Me by Your Name”

Snubbed: “The Florida Project”

Of the ten films nominated, five stand out, making the competition tough and diverse: “Dunkirk,” “Get Out,” “Lady Bird,” “The Shape of Water,” and “Call Me By Your Name.” Each film has a different strength: cinematography and scale (“Dunkirk”), novelty and social relevance (“Get Out”), acting and honest-sliver-of-real-life prowess (“Lady Bird”), mysticism and visual effects (“The Shape of Water”), and a fresh and intimately convincing love story (“Call Me By Your Name”).

Best Director

The nominees: Christopher Nolan (“Dunkirk”), Jordan Peele (“Get Out”), Greta Gerwig (“Lady Bird”), Paul Thomas Anderson (“Phantom Thread”), Guillermo del Toro (“The Shape of Water”)

Will win:

Victoria’s pick: Guillermo del Toro (“The Shape of Water”)

Sam’s pick: Guillermo del Toro (“The Shape of Water”)

Should win:

Victoria’s pick: Christopher Nolan (“Dunkirk”) really should, but Greta Gerwig (“Lady Bird”) has a special place in my heart as a female writer-director of one of the year’s most honest films.

Sam’s pick: Christopher Nolan (“Dunkirk”)

Snubbed: Luca Guadagnino (“Call Me by Your Name”)

Best Actress

The nominees: Sally Hawkins (“The Shape of Water”), Frances McDormand (“Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri”), Margot Robbie (“I, Tonya”), Saoirse Ronan (“Lady Bird”), Meryl Streep (”The Post”)

Will win:

Victoria’s pick: Frances McDormand (“Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri”)

Sam’s pick: Frances McDormand (“Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri”)

Should win:

Victoria’s pick: Frances McDormand (“Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri”), although I wouldn’t be surprised or sad if Margot Robbie (“I, Tonya”) wins as well.

Sam’s pick: Saoirse Ronan (“Lady Bird”)

Snubbed: Meryl Streep’s unnecessary nomination is a snub to all other Supporting Actress contenders not included in the category this year. This is especially relevant for seven-year-old Brooklynn Prince of “The Florida Project.”

Best Actor

The nominees: Timothee Chalamet (“Call Me by Your Name”), Daniel Day-Lewis (“Phantom Thread”), Daniel Kaluuya (“Get Out”), Gary Oldman (“Darkest Hour”), Denzel Washington (“Roman J. Israel, Esq.”)

Will win:

Victoria’s pick: Gary Oldman (“Darkest Hour”)

Sam’s pick: Timothee Chalamet (“Call Me by Your Name”)

Should win:

Victoria’s pick: Honestly, Oldman’s got it if not just for his complete (albeit slightly inconsistent) physical transformation. But this is a tough category — Timothee Chalamet put his whole self into his performance, but if Daniel Day-Lewis (“Phantom Thread”) wins, it might make him reconsider his retirement.

Sam’s pick: Timothee Chalamet gave the performance of the year, and though I normally wouldn’t expect the Oscar committee to stray from their old guns (Oldman, Day-Lewis), I think they’ll capitalize on the atmosphere of change in Hollywood and make a radical pick this year.  

Best Supporting Actress

The nominees: Mary J. Blige (“Mudbound”), Allison Janney (“I, Tonya”), Lesley Manville (“Phantom Thread”), Laurie Metcalf (“Lady Bird”), Octavia Spencer (“The Shape of Water”)

Will win:

Victoria’s pick: Allison Janney (“I, Tonya”)

Sam’s pick: Laurie Metcalf (“Lady Bird”)

Should win:

Victoria’s pick: Laurie Metcalf (”Lady Bird”)

Sam’s pick: Laurie Metcalf (“Lady Bird”)

Best Supporting Actor

The nominees: Willem Dafoe (“The Florida Project”), Woody Harrelson (“Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri”), Richard Jenkins (“The Shape of Water”), Christopher Plummer (“All the Money in the World”), Sam Rockwell (“Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri”)

Will win:

Victoria’s pick: Sam Rockwell (“Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri”) based on the awards show trend, Willem Dafoe (“The Florida Project”) based on actual performance.

Sam’s pick: Willem Dafoe (“The Florida Project”)

Should win:

Victoria’s pick: Willem Dafoe (“The Florida Project”)

Sam’s pick: Willem Dafoe (“The Florida Project”)

Best Animated Film

The nominees: “Coco,” “Loving Vincent,” “The Breadwinner,” “The Boss Baby,” “Ferdinand”

Will win:

Victoria’s pick: “Coco”

Sam’s pick: “Coco” — I don’t think there’s any dispute that “Coco” will take this one, though I’d love to see the big studios get upset by an underdog.

Should win:

Victoria’s pick: “Coco,” a culturally accurate tear-jerker from beginning to end.

Sam’s pick: “The Breadwinner”

Best Documentary Feature

The nominees: “Abacus: Small Enough to Jail,” “Faces Places,” “Icarus,” “Last Men in Aleppo,” “Strong Island”

Will win:

Victoria's Pick: “Faces Places”

Sam’s Pick: “Last Men in Aleppo”

Should win:

Victoria's Pick: “Abacus: Small Enough to Jail”

Sam’s Pick: “Icarus”

Best Adapted Screenplay

The nominees: “Call Me By Your Name,” “The Disaster Artist,” “Logan,” “Molly's Game,” “Mudbound”

Will win:

Victoria’s pick: “Call Me By Your Name”

Sam’s pick: “Call Me By Your Name”

Should win:

Victoria’s pick: If not “Call Me By Your Name,” then “Mudbound”

Sam’s pick: “Call Me By Your Name”

Best Original Screenplay

The nominees: “The Big Sick,” “Get Out,” “Lady Bird,” “The Shape of Water, “Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri”

Will win:

Victoria’s pick: “Get Out”

Sam’s pick: “Lady Bird”

Should win:

Victoria’s pick: “Lady Bird”

Sam’s pick: “Get Out”

Best Cinematography

The nominees: “Blade Runner 2049,” “Darkest Hour,” “Dunkirk,” “Mudbound,” “The Shape of Water”

Will win:

Victoria’s pick: “The Shape of Water”

Sam’s pick: “Dunkirk”

Should win:

Victoria’s pick: “Dunkirk”

Sam’s pick: “Blade Runner 2049”